In a 23 June 2016 referendum, the UK public voted to leave the European Union (EU). The implications for the UK, the EU and the rest of the world depend to a substantial extent on the agreed exit terms, as well as the negotiations with other countries.
The UK government will, at some point, notify the European Council of its intent to leave the EU. That notification triggers a two-year deadline for concluding negotiations. That deadline could be extended further by mutual consent of all Member States.
It has been widely speculated that the UK would wish to enter into some form of free trade agreement with the EU and the remaining EU Member States. Much would depend on the scope and terms of that agreement, but no matter which agreement will be reached, four overarching themes seem to emerge:
There are various ways on how the negotiations will turn out. We think along three main scenarios when we look at what is about to happen and what the consequences could be.
Brexit is a process not an act, with a long period of negotiations. Our scenario analysis suggests a long period of adjustment could follow once Article 50 is invoked:
Because of this uncertainty financial institutions must consider their response to Brexit across their entire business and operating model. Impact and Response will differ by institution and by industry.
Nothing has changed, yet everything seems to have changed.
For sure, while the impact the UK’s decision to leave the EU will be with us for some time, uncertainty will give way to new market realities and real opportunities as we move forward.
We at PwC Germany stand ready to helping you with the challenges and opportunities Brexit brings to your organisation. We have a dedicated Brexit Team, plugged into our global network, with the latest strategic, operational and technical insights together with expert opinion on likely political, legal and financial developments.
Find the contact persons below.
Leiter Financial Services
Tel.: +49 69 9585-2240
FS Brexit Leader Germany
Tel.: +49 69 9585-2812
Europe, Middle East, Africa leader
Tel.: +49 511 5357 5709
Dr. Hans-Ulrich Lauermann
Tel.: +49 69 9585-6174
Dr. Nicole Elert
Tel.: +49 211 981-4196
Dr. Philipp Wackerbeck
Tel.: +49 89 54525-659
Dr. Holger Kern
Tel.: +49 89 5790-5939
German Real Estate Leader
Tel.: +49 69 9585-5909