The National Security & Resilience Index

Your experts for questions

Prof. Dr. Rainer Bernnat
Leader Government & Public Sector, Strategy&, PwC Germany
Tel: +49 170 2238414
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Dr. Wolfgang Zink
Partner, Public Sector Consulting at PwC Germany
Tel: +49 1511 8964363
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Systemic resilience determines national security

Systemic resilience is one of the central challenges of our time. It determines national security, which is increasingly being put to the test in the face of geopolitical crises and shifting international power structures. But how can it be analysed precisely – and improved? Making resilience measurable and manageable is the aim of the National Security & Resilience Index (NSRI).

This analytical tool was developed by the Defence & Security Institute (DSI) of PwC Germany and Strategy&, together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

The DSI is a new security policy think tank founded by the audit and advisory firm PwC Germany and its strategy consultancy Strategy&. At the DSI, they pool their expertise in security and defence. The think tank provides scientifically grounded analysis and translates it into concrete, actionable options for all relevant stakeholders.

The study at a glance

The NSRI does not treat military strength in isolation as the core of a state's resilience. Instead, it analytically links military capabilities (Military Readiness), industrial capacities (Industrial Readiness) and civil society preparedness (Civil Readiness). The result is an analysis of society-wide potential in the context of a comprehensive defence capability.

Bringing systemic dependencies into focus

To achieve this, the NSRI consolidates comprehensive datasets to paint a realistic picture of the state of readiness. In doing so, it utilises, among others, a so-called "penalised mean" logic. This means that deficits in one analysed area—such as low societal trust in institutions—cannot be mathematically masked by strengths in another, such as military combat effectiveness. Instead, the index takes systemic dependencies into account.

Performance potential under stress

Importantly, the NSRI integrates not only quantitative data, but also qualitative assessments from recognised experts, which will be gathered regularly in the future through expert panels. In this way, the index also captures relevant aspects that cannot be found in numbers alone.

Thus, the NSRI reflects performance potential under stress. For example, it does not merely describe how many soldiers a country has. Instead, it shows how many can be mobilised and how quickly in case of need. This relates to military capabilities, but also to societal readiness to support military measures.

Germans know little about how to respond correctly in an emergency

The first edition of the pilot study centres on Germany as its initial country of focus. The results show that while Germany possesses considerable resources, it has not yet succeeded in effectively translating them into a holistic defence capability.

To date, the Federal Republic has relied on its economic strength for resilience. The military pillar was neglected in recent decades; however, following the Zeitenwende, it is now showing significant momentum and positive development. In contrast, the civil pillar is lagging far behind. For instance, data shows that the German population lags behind other countries, such as Finland, when it comes to knowing how to respond correctly in emergency situations.

Furthermore, the NSRI identifies personnel deficits in the police and emergency services. For the latter, a lack of reliable data is also noticeable. This makes it difficult to precisely determine personnel requirements in crisis scenarios and to plan adequately.

The methodology

The pilot edition of the National Security and Resilience Index marks the start of a long-term project. For now, the focus is on the concept, methodology and initial trends. Over the course of 2026, the approach will be further developed and refined on a scientific basis. The aim is for fully aggregated figures to be available for the first time in time for MSC 2027. 

In the future, the NSRI will be published annually to make progress and setbacks in resilience development comparable over time. An expansion to further European states and NATO partners is also planned, to enable an international comparison of resilience to crises. In-depth analyses for countries such as Poland, Italy, France, Finland, the United Kingdom and others are already under way.

The NSRI methodology combines established principles of indicator research with current insights from resilience, security and governance literature. Four core principles guide the framework: conceptual rigour, data realism, transparency and robustness.

The NSRI systematically combines quantitative and qualitative evidence. Resilience and governance research consistently demonstrates that purely quantitative metrics cannot capture critical dimensions of resilience and security capacity—such as leadership quality, the efficiency of institutional coordination or societal acceptance of state measures. Qualitative information is therefore not treated merely as supplementary, but as an essential data source for those dimensions where standardised, coherent and comparable figures are lacking.

All underlying calculations and processes—including aggregation weights, model cards and theoretical assumptions—will be disclosed in the comprehensive NSRI Index Handbook, which will be published during the first project cycle and updated regularly.