Real Estate Monitor

PwC‘s Real Estate Institute

Real Estate Capital Market KPIs – updated every month for you

Our PwC Real Estate Monitor provides you with a range of monthly derived Real Estate Capital Market KPIs. Our analyses are based on major listed German Real Estate Companies and provide you with sound insights into developments in the real estate industry.

Your contact person

Dr. Patrick Lehmann

Dr. Patrick Lehmann
Senior Manager at PwC Germany
Tel.: +49 30 2636-5304
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The Real Estate Industry

With more than 20 percent of national income before the automotive and engineering industries, the real estate industry is one of the largest economic sectors in Germany. The dynamic business environment opens up new growth opportunities, but also brings with it new challenges and risks. Market participants must ensure that they anticipate developments in the markets at an early stage. Therefore, their success depends to a large extent on valid market information. PwC's Real Estate Monitor provides monthly information on key capital market benchmarks that highlight current trends in the real estate industry.

Real Estate Monitor January (PDF, 0,5 MB)

Real Estate Monitor, January 2021

Figure of the Month: Index level: 419 – PwC Real Estate Index for residential companies notes at new all-time high

Latest Trends

Following the trend of November, the PwC Real Estate Index for residential companies (5.7%) and for their commercial counterpart (4.6%) increased significantly. However, there is still a notable spread between the commercial and the residential sector development.

The global average Real Estate WACC is stable at 5.2%. Also the average Real Estate WACC for German real estate companies is stable when compared with last month, reflecting the constantly high confidence of investors in the German Market.

While the EBITDA multiple at the end of Q4 for residential real estate (35.2x) remains approx. at the same level as at end of Q3, it grew for commercial real estate (from 17.6x to 19.2x).

Stock price data per company within the respective peer group is collected using the S&P Capital IQ Data Idem „ IQ_ClosePrice_Adj “. Capital IQ defines the Close Price as: The closing price of the day, calculated once per day after the market close. This pri ce is adjusted for stock splits. To obtain the price unadjusted for stock splits, multiply it by the data item called Cumulative St ock Split Factor. The applied adjustment is defined as: Close prices are adjusted for stock splits, cash dividends, rights offerings, a nd spin offs.

*Following the publication by IDW FAUB as of 10/25/2019 the market risk premium bandwidth was adjusted upward from 5.5% 7.0% to 6.0% 8.0% (before personal taxes) for periods after the above mentioned date.

„Reliable benchmarks are key for every investor in order to balance the information asymmetry in a real estate investment process.“

Dirk Hennig,Partner at PwC Germany

Real Estate Benchmarks

PwC Real Estate Index

The Index shows the development of respective peer group (residential and commercial) companies’ stock prices on a monthly basis. Stock price data per company within the respective peer group is collected from S&P Capital IQ and reflects the closing price of the day after adjustment for stock splits.

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WACC

The WACC is the rate of return required by investors (both debt and equity) taking into account the systematic risk characteristics inherent in the business. The derived WACC is an average value of a peer group of German listed real estate companies as well as its global counterpart.

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EBITDA Multiple

The EBITDA Multiple is a financial indicator that relates the enterprise value of a company to its EBITDA. We have derived the EBITDA Multiple based on last twelve month available EBITDA and the capitalized value for each company within the peer group (residential and commercial).

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Real Estate KPIs

Commercial real estate back at numbers of end of 2018

Residential real estate even above pre-crisis level of end of 2019

In order to gain insight into the changes in value of 18 major players in the German real estate market, we have analysed the sector-specific Real Estate KPIs FFO 1 and EPRA NAV from the financial periods FY2018, FY2019 and TFQ2020, i.e. Q4 2019 to Q3 2020 (TFQ: Trailing Four Quarters). We have put the share prices on the balance sheet dates 31 Dec 2018, 31 Dec 2019 and 31 Dec 2020 in relation to the above-mentioned key figures from the corresponding financial periods. The resulting average ratios by segment are shown in the figures below.

The table below shows the individual FFO 1 multiples and Price/EPRA NAV ratios of our peer group by segment. The key figures relate to the financial periods FY2018, FY2019 and TFQ2020 and the share prices as of 31 December 2018, 31 December 2019 and 31 December 2020.

Reading example: Vonovia was valued by the market at 21.3x of its FFO 1 as of 31 December 2019, whereas on 31 December 2020 it was valued at 26.0x of its FFO 1.

Multiples for both commercial and residential sectors show positive development

When comparing 31 December 2020 with 31 December 2019, the assessed real estate KPIs are approx. -12% below for commercial real estate companies and approx. +18% above for residential real estate companies.

Comparing the actual numbers with last month (please see the previous edition of our monthly newsletter), commercial real estate FFO multiple and price/EPRA NAV ratio and German residential real estate companies both show a positive development with residential real estate having a bigger growth.

These trends fit to both FFO 1 multiple and price/EPRA NAV ratio in the same ranges.

Download Real Estate Monitor, January 2021

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Disclaimer (important notice): This publication includes information obtained or derived from a variety of publicly available sources. PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft does not give any representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) as to the accuracy or completeness of this publication. This publication has been prepared solely for general informational. Nothing in this publication should be construed as individual advice. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult the sources or contacts listed here. The graphics may contain rounding differences.

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